INTERNATIONAL LOGISTICS: CHALLENGES IN BOTH OCEAN AND AIR FREIGHT
The international logistics market is evolving rapidly. The peak season started several weeks early, capacity is gradually tightening, and the geopolitical, regulatory, and climate environment is becoming increasingly complex.
A STRONGER AND EARLIER PEAK SEASON THAN EXPECTED
Since mid-May, volumes have been rising sharply on the main East-West trade lanes. This sustained demand has arrived earlier this year. Several factors are driving this acceleration: orders related to energy projects (notably solar panels and infrastructure in North Africa), the recovery of the automotive sector, strong activity from retailers specializing in home equipment, as well as the first orders intended for year-end sales.
At the same time, ocean carriers are maintaining a portion of their blank sailings, restricting available on-board capacity. As a result, vessels are showing high utilization rates, and freight rates continue to rise. This situation could last until at least the end of July, with capacity reductions already announced for weeks 30 and 31.
LULL IN THE MIDDLE EAST
On the geopolitical front, a lull appears to be taking hold in the Middle East following the agreement reached between the United States and Iran. Although the situation remains fragile and several negotiation points are still ongoing, this agreement has allowed for a gradual resumption of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
Consequently, the number of vessels in transit is increasing again, even though volumes remain significantly lower than pre-conflict levels.
Furthermore, discussions are still underway regarding the future status of the Strait. While the United States defends the principle of freedom of navigation, Iran wishes to maintain a central role in its administration.
In parallel, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) is currently coordinating a major crew change operation for several thousand seafarers who remained stranded in the region during the conflict. Resolving the accumulated delays, repositioning vessels, and fully securing maritime corridors is expected to take several weeks, if not months.
Finally, the alternative logistics setups developed in recent months, via transshipment ports or complementary multimodal solutions, are expected to be maintained in the short term. In this context, pressure on available capacity and freight rates could persist despite the gradual improvement of the situation.
CLIMATE CHALLENGES
Climate challenges also continue to weigh on global supply chains. At the Panama Canal, maintenance operations combined with fears surrounding the return of El Niño are causing transit restrictions, longer transit times, and consequently, delivery delays.
Meanwhile, the shipping industry continues its energy transition. Wind-assisted propulsion has just crossed the symbolic milestone of 100 commercial vessels equipped worldwide. This progress reflects the sector’s commitment to accelerating decarbonization while managing energy costs.
AIR FREIGHT ALSO UNDER PRESSURE
In air freight, pressure remains high in the Asia-Pacific region. Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore continue to experience significant capacity constraints toward Europe and the United States, driven by the artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors. According to WorldACD, this region alone accounts for nearly 80% of global air cargo growth this year. Furthermore, congestion observed in Bangkok and Nhava Sheva (India) continues to disrupt flows.
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