INTERNATIONAL LOGISTICS: CHALLENGES IN BOTH OCEAN AND AIR FREIGHT
The international logistics market is evolving rapidly. The peak season started several weeks early, capacity is gradually tightening, and the geopolitical, regulatory, and climate environment is becoming increasingly complex.
A STRONGER AND EARLIER PEAK SEASON THAN EXPECTED
Since mid-May, volumes have been rising sharply on the main East-West trade lanes. This sustained demand has arrived earlier this year. Several factors are driving this acceleration: orders related to energy projects (notably solar panels and infrastructure in North Africa), the recovery of the automotive sector, strong activity from retailers specializing in home equipment, as well as the first orders intended for year-end sales.
At the same time, ocean carriers are maintaining a portion of their blank sailings, restricting available on-board capacity. As a result, vessels are showing high utilization rates, and freight rates continue to rise. This situation could last until at least the end of July, with capacity reductions already announced for weeks 30 and 31.
It should be noted that global congestion is at its highest level since 2022, with nearly 11% of the global fleet stranded in ports. Severe congestion is particularly evident in major Asian ports (Shanghai, Ningbo, Qingdao, Singapore) and ports in Northern Europe (Bremerhaven, Hamburg, Rotterdam, Antwerp).
END OF THE CEASEFIRE IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Three ships were targeted in the strait on July 7, while other incidents involving an oil tanker and a tanker were also reported. Qatar and Saudi Arabia attribute two of these attacks to Iran and denounce them as a threat to the safety of shipping and global energy supplies.
In response, the United States carried out strikes against more than 80 targets in Iran. Tehran claims to have retaliated by targeting U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, while explosions were reported near the strategic oil terminal in Bushehr. This latest escalation has caused oil prices to rise by more than 5 percent.
While a provisional agreement had allowed for the free passage of ships for 60 days, Iran now seeks to control maritime routes and impose transit fees – a position rejected by the United States and the Gulf states.
Despite this unstable security situation, maritime traffic has resumed in the Strait of Hormuz: 258 ships passed through last week.
CLIMATE CHALLENGES
Climate challenges also continue to weigh on global supply chains. At the Panama Canal, maintenance operations combined with fears surrounding the return of El Niño are causing transit restrictions, longer transit times, and consequently, delivery delays.
Meanwhile, the shipping industry continues its energy transition. Wind-assisted propulsion has just crossed the symbolic milestone of 100 commercial vessels equipped worldwide. This progress reflects the sector’s commitment to accelerating decarbonization while managing energy costs.
AIR FREIGHT ALSO UNDER PRESSURE
In air freight, pressure remains high in the Asia-Pacific region. Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore continue to experience significant capacity constraints toward Europe and the United States, driven by the artificial intelligence and semiconductor sectors. According to WorldACD, this region alone accounts for nearly 80% of global air cargo growth this year. Furthermore, congestion observed in Bangkok and Nhava Sheva (India) continues to disrupt flows.
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