SEA FREIGHT RATES: WILL THE RISE LAST?

Since the beginning of 2025, the ocean freight market has been oscillating between inflationary pressures and deflationary forces. After a period of increase due to geopolitical tensions and new environmental regulations, freight rates are starting to fall on certain key routes, notably between Asia and Europe. This volatility is raising questions among shippers as to how long this trend will last, and what strategies they should adopt.

A MARKET UNDER PRESSURE BETWEEN RISING AND FALLING RATES

Tensions in the Red Sea and the need to avoid the Suez Canal have contributed to a rise in costs in 2024. Detours around the Cape of Good Hope have lengthened lead times by 10 to 15 days and increased carriers’ operating costs, having a direct impact on freight rates.

At the same time, the introduction of the FuelEU Maritime directive requires the use of less-polluting fuels, adding further pressure on prices.

However, despite these inflationary factors, the market is currently experiencing a decline in freight rates on several major routes. Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) records a drop in spot prices on the Shanghai-Rotterdam (-8%) and Shanghai-Genoa (-2%) routes. For its part, the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI) forecasts further declines, with 11% to Northern Europe and 7% to the Mediterranean.

OVERCAPACITY LIMITS PRICE RECOVERY

The oversupply of capacity plays a key role in this fall in rates. In 2024, 2.4 million TEU of new capacity have been commissioned, and 2.9 million TEU are expected in 2025. In response to this pressure, several carriers are attempting to implement rate increases from March onwards. For example, Maersk is targeting a rate of $4,000 per 40 feet on Shanghai-Rotterdam, while CMA CGM is posting $4,335. But some shippers are still negotiating much lower rates, with offers around $2,100 on certain routes.

WHAT’S THE OUTLOOK FOR SHIPPERS?

The sea freight market remains unpredictable. While carriers continue to announce increases, sluggish demand and heightened competition could keep rates under pressure. For shippers, the challenge is to anticipate this volatility and optimize their supply strategy.

To secure your logistics flows, our teams can advise you on the best way to manage your shipments.